Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder by Nassim Nicholas Taleb I had never read any books by Nassim Taleb of "black swan" fame until some hilarious retweets from his Twitter account caused me to start following him. Taleb is a witty and opinionated fellow. He's lately been hating on what he labels the "Intellectual Yet Idiot" class. Here's a recent Facebook post of his on the topic that went viral. What's a IYI? Intellectual Yet Idiot: semi-erudite bureaucrat who thinks he is an erudite; pathologizes others for doing things he … [Read more...]
How Demographics Explain the World
Demographics may not be destiny, but they do play a huge role in driving the fortunes of society and the economy. Sami Karam of Populyst joined me for a podcast on demographic trends around the world. The conversation ranged from the rise of China to the fall of Japan - and even why Occupy Wall Street failed to achieve lift-off. Topics include: 0:00 Introduction and overview of Sami Karam’s work 2:20 Why Occupy Wall Street didn't take off 3:15 Demographics on the problems of the Japanese economy 3:50 What does demographics tell … [Read more...]
What Happens When There’s Nobody Left to Move to the City?
Following up on the Pew study that found many states will face declining work age populations in the future, I want to highlight a recent Atlantic article called "The Graying of Rural America." It's a profile of the small Oregon town of Fossil, which is slowly dying as the young people leave and a rump population of older people - median age 56 - begin to pass on. Like the Pew study, this one has implications that weren't fully traced out. There's a lot of urban triumphalism these days, as cities crow about Millennials wanting to live … [Read more...]
The End of Job Growth
Pew Charitable Trusts recently posted an analysis of population projections that show several states with stagnant to declining workforces. This means that for nearly 20 states, it's basically impossible to add jobs in the future. How can you add more jobs with fewer workers? That doesn't mean there won't be cyclical ups or downs or that some slack in the system might be taken up with some growth, but overall, stagnation to decline in jobs is going to follow. Pew's article mentions states fighting to retain a high skill labor force, … [Read more...]
How Newcastle Went From Post-Industrial Wasteland to Top 10 Global Travel Destination
Creating Cities by Marcus Westbury I'll make it easy for you: buy this book. Creating Cities is an engaging, well-written overview of the Renew Newcastle effort in Australia that helped turn the moribund downtown of a fading steel city into one of Lonely Planet's top ten global travel destinations in 2011. But not only a breezy read and a feel good case study, this book is also a celebration of bottom-up urbanism, and citizens taking the revitalization of their city into their own hands. In contrast to the typical top down planning, … [Read more...]
The Cultural Power of New York City
I've never been a huge theater guy in general, much less Broadway shows. So I never paid that much attention to it. But the smash success of Hamilton is something hard to ignore. And it really provides a window into the overwhelming cultural power of New York. Hamilton is a play that is running at a theater that seats 1,300 people. You'd think that by its very nature as one play, in one city, in a not that big venue, it would be limited in the effects it could have. But Hamilton turned out to be a sensation whose effects extended far … [Read more...]
A $63 Million High School Football Stadium Shows Changing Republican Values
A lot of so-called "movement" conservatives dislike Donald Trump because he isn't conservative in their view. Some of them have sadly concluded that much of their own base is not as well, being much more open to things like protectionist trade policy than in years gone by. Their focus has been on working class voter, but another chunk of the Republican electorate, namely upscale metropolitan Republicans, is also moving away from some traditional conservative positions. These middle to upper middle class Republicans have little interest … [Read more...]
Sun Belt Problems Come to New York City
Surging subway ridership in New York has driven a flurry of press recently, including this piece in the New York Times: Subway ridership in New York is in the midst of a resurgence almost unimaginable in the 1970s and ’80s, when the system was defined by graffiti and crime. Ridership has steadily risen to nearly six million daily riders today from about four million in the 1990s. But the subway infrastructure has not kept pace, and that has left the system with a litany of needs, many of them essential to maintaining current service or … [Read more...]
There Are No Writers Here
I've long noted that the civic identity or culture of many places seems to be a cipher. What is our identity as a city? is a question frequently asked. And one that needs to be. Cities will succeed best when they undertake policies that are true to the place. To most successfully build or rebuild a place, it's important to articulate that civic identity and work with it, not against it. Of course some of that happens by the very fact that the people who live in a place are steeped in its culture. But a lack of self-awareness can be a big … [Read more...]
How Long Before Regionalization Is Rebranded as a Suburban Bailout?
Back in January Strong Towns ran a great piece by Nathaniel Hood called "This isn't an annexation - it's a bailout." It's a short story about a town in Minnesota that's about to annex a small 1960's subdivision that somehow remained in incorporated territory for many years. Basically this subdivision enjoyed low county tax rates for years and now that its infrastructure is shot, it's finally interested in joining up with the adjacent city in order to enjoy some services. Hood correctly characterizes this as a bailout, and I agree … [Read more...]
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